The Backdrop

• Tariffs scare shoppers. One mention of the “T word” and retailers tell me sales drop instantly. The unpredictability makes it impossible to plan.
• Supply chains are still messy. Delays, reroutes, and higher costs mean stores are padding inventory just in case.
• Too much of the wrong stuff. Some of my retailers I work closely with stocked up early and now can’t move it. A shoe retailer told me he’s stuck with Pumas his customers no longer want. They are too expensive, and they are looking for a better value.
• Shoppers are cautious. Value matters more than brand. They’re mixing online, off-price, and discount channels.
• Retail space is softening. More stores are closing than opening. Vacancy is climbing, and most new tenants are not soft goods. With Macy’s and Kohl’s wobbling, I pray Amazon doesn’t end up our only fashion option.

Big Boxes

Why they may hold up:
They have scale, global sourcing, and balance sheets to ride out storms. They can shift suppliers, hedge costs, and lean on private labels.

Where they will struggle:
Margins are already thinner from tariffs. Extra inventory is forcing discounts. Operating costs for big stores remain heavy. Even so, they will likely come out battered but standing.

Mom-and-Pops

These are the ones I worry about most. Small shops do not have the buying power or wiggle room to absorb tariffs. They rely on fewer suppliers and cannot pivot quickly. Yet they are the soul of our shopping centers. Without them, retail becomes bland and predictable. I plan to purchase as many things as I can during my holiday shopping to help the small retailers.